My prediction is that the smartphone market as it is currently defined will never materialize as a force to be reckoned with for the simple reason that people don't want their desktop computer shrunk down to a handset sized device that is neither a great phone nor a great computer. Existing, many proprietary, handset platforms will expand to include features like media playback, better data communications, and syncing with desktop systems. My SE S700 has all this... what's the operating system it uses? Beats me.
His argument, of course, relies on the assumption that a smartphone is "neither a great phone nor a great computer".
In reality, this isn't the case - I find it to be exactly the opposite. I have to wonder if he's actually used the Audiovox, which is as close to perfection as a phone can be. The beauty of the Smartphone is that it's a full-fledged PDA (not a "computer") in the form factor of a phone.
That said, Jeff's point that the carriers have a lot of control here is important. Fortunately, Cingular has decided to make good on their promises and finally bring back the Audiovox.